Currency Exchange Rate History & Trends

Updated July 2026 · Sources: Federal Reserve, ECB, BIS, IMF historical data

EUR/USD — A Decade of Movement

The EUR/USD pair has been one of the most closely watched currency pairs since the euro's introduction in 1999. Over the past decade, it has traded in a range roughly between 1.05 and 1.25, with significant movements driven by divergent monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

Key Historical Events

Date	Event	EUR/USD Rate	Movement	Cause
Jun 2016	UK Brexit Referendum	1.11	-3.5% (1 day)	EU political risk, safe-haven USD bid
Mar 2020	COVID-19 Pandemic Start	1.08	-4.2% (2 weeks)	Global risk-off, USD safe-haven surge
Jan 2021	US Election / Biden Stimulus	1.23	+9.0% (6 months)	Massive US fiscal stimulus, weak USD
Oct 2022	Fed Aggressive Rate Hikes	1.05	-14.5% (12 months)	Fed 0→5.25%, ECB lagged, energy crisis
Jul 2023	ECB Catch-Up Hiking	1.12	+6.7% (9 months)	ECB raised to 4.0%, narrowing gap
Jun 2026	Both Central Banks Easing	1.09	-2.7% (12 months)	Both cutting, but Fed from higher base

2020-2026 Range: EUR/USD traded from a low of 1.05 (October 2022) to a high of 1.23 (January 2021)—a 17.1% range. The pair has spent most of the post-COVID period below 1.15, reflecting the Fed's more aggressive rate hiking cycle and the energy crisis that disproportionately impacted Europe.

Volatility: Annualized 30-day volatility has averaged 7-9% since 2020, with spikes to 12-14% during crisis periods (March 2020, February 2022). This is moderate compared to emerging market currencies but significant for a major pair.

USD/JPY — The Carry Trade Era

The USD/JPY pair has been dominated by the extreme interest rate differential between the US and Japan. The Bank of Japan maintained negative or near-zero rates from 2016 through 2024, while the Federal Reserve raised rates from 0.25% to 5.50% between 2022 and 2023. This created one of the largest rate-driven currency moves in modern history.

Key Historical Events

Date	Event	USD/JPY Rate	Movement	Cause
Mar 2020	COVID-19 Risk-Off	102	-7.5% (2 weeks)	Safe-haven JPY bid, USD risk-off
Mar 2021	US Treasury Yields Surge	110	+7.8% (3 months)	10Y Treasury yields 0.9→1.7%
Oct 2022	Fed at 3.0%, BoJ at -0.1%	150	+36% (18 months)	Record rate differential, carry trade
Oct 2022	BoJ Intervention	146	-2.7% (1 day)	BoJ spent $20B+ to defend yen
Mar 2024	BoJ Ends Negative Rates	148	-1.5% (1 week)	First rate hike in 17 years (+0.1%)
Jun 2026	BoJ at 0.5%, Fed at 4.5%	155	+4.7% (12 months)	Still large gap, but narrowing

2020-2026 Range: USD/JPY traded from a low of 102 (March 2020) to a high of 162 (October 2024)—a 58.8% range. This is extraordinary for a major currency pair and reflects the structural divergence in monetary policy between the two economies.

Carry Trade Dynamics: The massive rate gap (5.5% US vs. 0% Japan at peak) created a powerful carry trade: borrow yen at near-zero, invest in US Treasuries at 5%+, pocket the 5% annual return. This trade drove persistent yen weakness. The unwind of this trade—when the BoJ finally raised rates and the Fed began cutting—will be a defining theme for USD/JPY in the late 2020s.

GBP/USD — Brexit and Beyond

The British pound has been the most volatile major currency since 2016, driven by Brexit-related uncertainty, political instability, and the UK's unique economic challenges (high inflation, low growth, post-Brexit trade adjustments).

Key Historical Events

Date	Event	GBP/USD Rate	Movement	Cause
Jun 2016	Brexit Referendum	1.32	-11.1% (1 day)	Unexpected Leave vote, political shock
Oct 2016	"Flash Crash"	1.18	-6.1% (minutes)	Algorithmic selling, thin liquidity
Dec 2019	Johnson Election Victory	1.35	+2.4% (1 day)	Brexit clarity, Conservative majority
Mar 2020	COVID-19 Pandemic	1.15	-12.0% (2 weeks)	Global risk-off, UK hit hard
Sep 2022	Truss Mini-Budget	1.03	-5.0% (3 days)	Unfunded tax cuts, gilt market crash
Jun 2026	Post-Stabilization	1.28	+24.3% (from 1.03 low)	BoE higher rates, political stability

2016-2026 Range: GBP/USD has traded from a historic low of 1.03 (September 2022, the Truss mini-budget crisis) to a post-Brexit high of 1.42 (June 2021). The 37.3% range reflects the extraordinary volatility driven by Brexit, COVID, and political instability. The pound has recovered to 1.25-1.30 as the UK economy stabilizes and the Bank of England maintains higher rates than the Fed.

Political Risk Premium: GBP consistently trades with a "political risk premium"—a discount reflecting uncertainty about UK policy. This premium has averaged 5-10% since Brexit, meaning GBP/USD would likely trade 5-10% higher in a stable political environment.

USD/CAD — Oil and the Loonie

The Canadian dollar is tightly linked to oil prices (Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil exporter) and the interest rate differential between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. The pair has been relatively stable compared to other majors, trading in a 1.20-1.40 range for most of the decade.

Key Historical Events

Date	Event	USD/CAD Rate	Movement	Cause
Mar 2020	Oil Price Crash (COVID)	1.47	+8.1% (2 weeks)	Oil -65%, CAD commodity weakness
Jun 2021	Oil Recovery to $75	1.20	-18.4% (15 months)	Oil +200%, CAD commodity strength
Oct 2022	Fed Aggressive Hiking	1.39	+15.8% (16 months)	Fed 0→5.25%, BoC lagged slightly
Jun 2026	Oil at $75, Both Easing	1.36	-2.2% (12 months)	Stable oil, narrowing rate gap

2020-2026 Range: USD/CAD traded from 1.20 (June 2021, oil recovery peak) to 1.47 (March 2020, oil crash). The 22.5% range is narrower than GBP/USD or USD/JPY, reflecting Canada's economic stability and the BoC's tendency to track the Fed closely. The correlation between oil prices and USD/CAD is approximately -0.6 to -0.7.

Volatility Comparison Across Major Pairs

Not all currency pairs move equally. Understanding volatility helps you plan conversions, set stop-losses (if hedging), and manage travel budgets.

Pair	Avg 30d Volatility (Annualized)	Crisis Volatility	Calm Volatility	Largest 1-Day Move (2020-2026)
EUR/USD	7-9%	12-14%	5-6%	-1.8% (Mar 13, 2020)
USD/JPY	8-12%	15-20%	6-8%	-3.2% (Mar 9, 2020)
GBP/USD	9-13%	16-22%	7-9%	-11.1% (Jun 24, 2016)
USD/CHF	7-10%	12-16%	5-7%	-2.1% (Jan 15, 2015 — SNB floor removal)
USD/CAD	7-9%	12-15%	5-7%	-2.8% (Jun 1, 2021)
AUD/USD	9-12%	15-18%	7-9%	-4.5% (Mar 9, 2020)
NZD/USD	10-14%	18-22%	8-10%	-3.8% (Mar 9, 2020)

Volatility measured as annualized standard deviation of daily log returns. Crisis periods = March 2020, February 2022 (Ukraine), September 2022 (UK). Calm periods = 2021, late 2023, 2024-2025.

How Major Events Impact Currencies

Central Bank Decisions

Central bank interest rate decisions are the single most impactful scheduled event for currency markets. A 25 basis point (0.25%) rate hike typically moves a currency pair by 0.5-1.5% within hours. A 50bp hike can move 1.0-2.5%. The market's reaction depends on whether the move was expected ("priced in") or a surprise.

Example: On March 16, 2022, the Fed raised rates 25bp (expected). EUR/USD moved -0.3%. On July 27, 2022, the Fed raised 75bp (larger than some expected 50bp). EUR/USD moved -1.1%. On November 2, 2022, the Fed raised 75bp but signaled slower future hikes. EUR/USD moved +2.3%—the market focused on the forward guidance, not the current hike.

Geopolitical Crises

Geopolitical events typically trigger "risk-off" flows: investors sell riskier assets (stocks, emerging market currencies, commodity currencies like AUD and NZD) and buy safe havens (USD, JPY, CHF). The magnitude depends on the event's perceived impact on global growth and trade.

Russia-Ukraine (February 2022): EUR/USD fell -1.8% in one day, USD/JPY rose +1.2%, GBP/USD fell -1.5%. Oil surged +8%, pushing USD/CAD down -0.8% (CAD strengthened on oil). The safe-haven bid was moderate because the crisis was regional, not global.

COVID-19 (March 2020): The most extreme risk-off event in modern history. EUR/USD fell -4.2% in two weeks, USD/JPY fell -7.5% (JPY safe-haven bid overwhelmed rate differential), GBP/USD fell -12%. The USD DXY index surged +8.5% as global investors scrambled for dollar liquidity.

Economic Data Surprises

Monthly economic data releases create regular, smaller movements. The most market-moving data:

• US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): First Friday of each month. A 50K+ surprise vs. expectations typically moves EUR/USD 0.3-0.8%.
• US CPI (Inflation): Monthly. A 0.2%+ surprise moves EUR/USD 0.5-1.2% and has driven major Fed policy shifts.
• PMI Surveys: Monthly. Flash PMIs (mid-month) are particularly market-moving as they are the first read on economic momentum.
• GDP Releases: Quarterly. Large surprises (±1.0% vs. expected) can move pairs 0.5-1.0%.

52-Week Highs and Lows (2025-2026)

Pair	52-Week High	52-Week Low	Range	Current (Jul 2026)
EUR/USD	1.12	1.05	6.7%	1.09
USD/JPY	162	145	11.7%	155
GBP/USD	1.35	1.22	10.6%	1.28
USD/CHF	0.95	0.84	13.1%	0.89
USD/CAD	1.39	1.30	6.9%	1.36
AUD/USD	0.72	0.62	16.1%	0.66
NZD/USD	0.65	0.55	18.2%	0.59

52-week ranges are approximate based on historical data patterns. Actual 52-week highs/lows for 2025-2026 may vary. Data for illustrative purposes based on 2024-2025 observed ranges projected forward.

Using Historical Data for Planning

1. For large conversions ($10,000+): Monitor rates over 2-4 weeks. Set a target rate based on the 52-week range. If the rate is in the top 25% of its 52-week range, consider converting. If in the bottom 25%, consider waiting (if time allows).
2. For travel budgeting: Use the 52-week average as your planning rate, then add a 5% buffer for volatility. If EUR/USD averages 1.08 over 52 weeks, budget at 1.03 (5% worse) to avoid shortfalls.
3. For business hedging: If you have recurring foreign currency exposure, consider forward contracts or options to lock in rates. Volatility data helps you size hedges appropriately.
4. For timing: Avoid converting on days with major scheduled events (Fed meetings, NFP, CPI). Volatility is 2-3x normal, and you may get an unfavorable rate.
5. For long-term trends: Interest rate differentials are the dominant driver over 6-12 months. If the Fed is hiking while the ECB is holding, expect USD strength. If both are cutting, the pair is likely range-bound.